To Open or Not to Open - How do we decide?

In the Roae bill passed in the state house on Tuesday I am wondering what the impact will be on those that own a business and open up and find that their business is not what they hoped or expected. What will happen to the eligibility for the equivalent to unemployment or other stimulus funds others will continue to get being closed. I am aware that many of those funds have not been a reality still for many of my business friends. Maybe it would be good to look at a couple of examples I have been thinking about.

I have a friend who owns a golf course and can’t wait to be open and I have to say their course looks magnificent. Makes me want to dust off the clubs and start playing again. Part of that is I too am tired of being cooped up in the house for the most part. They have applied for the stimulus funds from the different bills that have been passed by the federal government. Part of their frustration is that they must maintain and therefor pay for the ongoing costs of keeping the course up. Under the Roae bill he decided it will be great and he opens his course with special limitations. Tee times must be reserved and will be 15 minutes apart so there is no social distancing problems. Only immediate family members from the same house are permitted to share a cart. At no time should golfers be less than 5 feet from one another. He has invested in special flags and cups so that they do not need to be touched when you finish a hole. He has also installed hand sanitizers at each tee as an added precaution. When a round it completed, he has a staff member that is dressed in PPE and takes the cart to the shed to be cleaned and sanitized before the next player uses it. The snack shop will remain closed, but a small stand is available for limited snacks like chips and drinks.

The first thing he discovers is that when he calls the 12 leagues that had planned to play there this spring only two are willing to play because the members are not ready to venture out yet. Several indicate they will still come out and play even though the league isn’t running. Those leagues usually mean he can count on 250 weekly rounds plus carts. The number of non-league rounds is only about 60% of normal because of the spread out tee times and many of the old timers are not venturing out because of health concerns. Some are not coming because of their concern but in talking with many of them he find that their families are really worried about them being out. Two weeks after opening he discovers that other courses are not getting the play they expected and have begun discounting play.

What will be the financial impact of the bills as passed to the golf course?

Another friend owns a photography studio, and this is normally the crazy part of her year. She is normally packed every day and several evenings with senior photo sessions, engagement photos and family events. She had 9 out of 10 weekends this spring booked with weddings including two weekends with two. Several of those wedding had large bridal parties that usually mean extra photographs in the order. Of the eleven weddings only 3 have not been postponed and now those probably will not have a traditional reception. While they have offered special package deals because many are out of work she is only doing about 20% of her normal business.

What will be the financial impact of the bills as passed to the photography studio?

Another friend owns a small bookstore with a coffee and donut counter that people usually come and browse and sit while having coffee, often with a friend. They rearrange the store a bit to make tables further apart but there is the limit to the number of people that can be in the store at any one time. They make the difficult decision not to open the counter to anything but to go coffee and donuts. Now they have a few people that are regular long-term customers that come in to chat, read the paper and buy one or two books a week. They are finding that their sales are minimal and the restrictions on the number in the store mean that the regulars mostly are not coming.

What will be the financial impact of the bills as passed to the bookstore?

When I was teaching business at the college level one of the courses, I taught was a small business seminar with the need to develop a business plan. As I have been chatting with some of my business friends, they have concerns about how long it will be before people come back even if they throw the doors wide open. I think making sure you have thought out the possible impacts will be more important today then ever before. I do not know one business owner that is excited about government funding their business and want to be back at work. Then they must worry about employees as well. Who can answer the questions about how to plan for recovery?

Lastly, how soon will we be at the point that they say the business is open and you are now fully on your own? Was that defined in any of the legislation passed at the federal or state level? We all know we have to get to that point because we are creating historic deficits right now that will take generations to recover from.

If you know me, you know I like to be able to be part of a solution to a problem I see and one of the best ways to help is to become educated. That is the reason I am asking you to think about these kinds of scenarios and how we can minimize the impact while supporting and getting people back to work. I have always believed that learning to ask the right questions and helping people think the answer through is one of the most effective ways of finding workable solutions.

What are your ideas on how to get us back on track?

FYI While the above business scenarios are based on real business conversations I have been a part of they are composites created for discussion and not describing one business I know.